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Transit timing variation and transmission spectroscopy analyses of the hot Neptune GJ3470b

GJ3470b is a hot Neptune exoplanet orbiting an M dwarf and the first sub-Jovian planet to exhibit Rayleigh scattering. We present transit timing variation (TTV) and transmission spectroscopy analyses of multiwavelength optical photometry from 2.4-m and 0.5-m telescopes at the Thai National Observatory, and the 0.6-m PROMPT-8 telescope in Chile. Our TTV analysis allows us to place an upper mass limit for a second planet in the system. The presence of a hot Jupiter with a period of less than 10 d or a planet with an orbital period between 2.5 and 4.0 d are excluded. Combined optical and near-infrared transmission spectroscopy favour an H/He-dominated haze (mean molecular weight 1.08 ± 0.20) with high particle abundance at high altitude. We also argue that previous near-infrared data favour the presence of methane in the atmosphere of GJ3470b

Results from evaluations of models and cost-effectiveness tools to support introduction decisions for new vaccines need critical appraisal

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that the cost-effectiveness (CE) of introducing new vaccines be considered before such a programme is implemented. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), it is often challenging to perform and interpret the results of model-based economic appraisals of vaccines that benefit from locally relevant data. As a result, WHO embarked on a series of consultations to assess economic analytical tools to support vaccine introduction decisions for pneumococcal, rotavirus and human papillomavirus vaccines. The objectives of these assessments are to provide decision makers with a menu of existing CE tools for vaccines and their characteristics rather than to endorse the use of a single tool. The outcome will provide policy makers in LMICs with information about the feasibility of applying these models to inform their own decision making. We argue that if models and CE analyses are used to inform decisions, they ought to be critically appraised beforehand, including a transparent evaluation of their structure, assumptions and data sources (in isolation or in comparison to similar tools), so that decision makers can use them while being fully aware of their robustness and limitations

Planetary population synthesis

In stellar astrophysics, the technique of population synthesis has been successfully used for several decades. For planets, it is in contrast still a young method which only became important in recent years because of the rapid increase of the number of known extrasolar planets, and the associated growth of statistical observational constraints. With planetary population synthesis, the theory of planet formation and evolution can be put to the test against these constraints. In this review of planetary population synthesis, we first briefly list key observational constraints. Then, the work flow in the method and its two main components are presented, namely global end-to-end models that predict planetary system properties directly from protoplanetary disk properties and probability distributions for these initial conditions. An overview of various population synthesis models in the literature is given. The sub-models for the physical processes considered in global models are described: the evolution of the protoplanetary disk, the planets' accretion of solids and gas, orbital migration, and N-body interactions among concurrently growing protoplanets. Next, typical population synthesis results are illustrated in the form of new syntheses obtained with the latest generation of the Bern model. Planetary formation tracks, the distribution of planets in the mass-distance and radius-distance plane, the planetary mass function, and the distributions of planetary radii, semimajor axes, and luminosities are shown, linked to underlying physical processes, and compared with their observational counterparts. We finish by highlighting the most important predictions made by population synthesis models and discuss the lessons learned from these predictions - both those later observationally confirmed and those rejected.Comment: 47 pages, 12 figures. Invited review accepted for publication in the 'Handbook of Exoplanets', planet formation section, section editor: Ralph Pudritz, Springer reference works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Ed

Candidate Water Vapor Lines to Locate the H2O Snowline through High-dispersion Spectroscopic Observations. III. Submillimeter H2 16O and H2 18O Lines

In this paper, we extend the results presented in our former papers on using ortho-H216O line profiles to constrain the location of the H2O snowline in T Tauri and Herbig Ae disks, to include submillimeter para-H216O and ortho- and para-H218O lines. Since the number densities of the ortho- and para-H218O molecules are about 560 times smaller than their 16O analogs, they trace deeper into the disk than the ortho-H216O lines (down to z = 0, i.e., the midplane). Thus these H218O lines are potentially better probes of the position of the H2O snowline at the disk midplane, depending on the dust optical depth. The values of the Einstein A coefficients of submillimeter candidate water lines tend to be lower (typically <10‑4 s‑1) than infrared candidate water lines. Thus in the submillimeter candidate water line cases, the local intensity from the outer optically thin region in the disk is around 104 times smaller than that in the infrared candidate water line cases. Therefore, in the submillimeter lines, especially H218O and para-H216O lines with relatively lower upper state energies (∼a few 100 K) can also locate the position of the H2O snowline. We also investigate the possibility of future observations with ALMA to identify the position of the water snowline. There are several candidate water lines that trace the hot water gas inside the H2O snowline in ALMA Bands 5–10